After winning as easily as you could ask at Arizona State, Mark Richt’s Georgia team returns home to black shirts and a blacked-out crowd to prove its superiority once again over Alabama. Experience and a great quarterback should make the difference.
Last week our best bets went 2-1 (season: 8-4) and missed a perfect week when N.C. QB T.J. Yates went down with a 17-3 lead in the second half. The Tar Heels just gave up after that.
This week’s best bets: Miami, East Carolina and San Diego State.
Last week we gave you a five pack of teams we were betting against due to emotional letdowns expected. All five lost or failed to cover. This week, using the same angle, we’re going against Houston, North Carolina, Mississippi and San Jose State.
Saturday
Alabama +6 1/2 at Georgia—We’re going with the Bulldogs here because of the edge they have at quarterback and overall experience. Alabama is young and fast with a big defensive line, but expect Georgia to be able to run holes through that line to set up one of the best QBs in college football, Mathew Stafford.
The pick: Georgia, hopefully by more than a TD.
TCU +18½ at Oklahoma—The Sooners certainly remember TCU coming to Norman in ’05 and pulling off a 17-10 upset. This time there will be no taking them by surprise. Oklahoma has possibly the best team in the country on both sides of the ball, and TCU, while impressive against SMU, isn’t quite as good as the team that pulled the upset.
The pick: Oklahoma, which is on a roll and would love to bury the Frogs this time.
Mississippi +22 at Florida—While many are thrilled that Vanderbilt remained undefeated by upsetting Mississippi last week, there’s little doubt that Ole Miss gave the game away. With six turnovers, including a fumble as they were scoring the winning TD, the Rebels will remember this loss when bowl season comes around. And couple this loss with the heartbreaker they lost to Wake Forest two weeks ago, and you’ve got a team that will have a difficult time preparing for Florida.
The pick: Florida. Urban Meyer loves to roll it up.
North Carolina +7 1/2 at Miami—It looked like the Tar Heels were about to upset Virginia Tech last week, leading 17-3 in the second half, when QB T.J. Yates twisted his ankle and the Tar Heels just fell apart once their leader was gone. Now news comes that Yates is out 4 to 6 weeks, just as N.C. visits revenge-minded Miami.
After last week’s thrashing of Texas A&M and the fine showing they had at Florida, there’s no doubt the Hurricanes are much improved this year. And with the Tar Heels emotionally down it shouldn’t be too hard for Miami to make up for the defeat they suffered last year at North Carolina.
The pick: Miami (best bet).
Marshall +15 at West Virginia—After winning at Southern Miss and after taking a 14-0 lead at Wisconsin before falling, there’s no doubt that this Marshall team has found its stride. And it couldn’t have come at a better time because in-state rival West Virginia (at least Marshall thinks it’s a rivalry) looks ripe for the picking. The Mountaineers just don’t look right this season under new coach Bill Stewart. “Slow reacting” might be a better description for their performance at Colorado last week and against East Carolina before that.
The pick: Marshall. This line opened at 17, so we’re not the only ones who like the Herd.
Purdue +1 1/2 at Notre Dame—Here are two of the most unreliable teams in college football. ND opened a 3-point fave and the money rushed in on Purdue, probably because Purdue has a passing game, which is something the Irish are still trying to find. Purdue had Oregon on the ropes two weeks ago, which is a much better team than the pair that ND defeated.
The pick: Purdue.
Maryland +11 at Clemson—Clemson has righted its ship after Alabama gave them a wake up call in the season opener. But to beat Maryland you’ve got to throw the ball (the Terps are 109th in pass defense) and that’s not Clemson’s game. Maryland, on the other hand, is also improving rapidly and has won in Death Valley on two of its last three trips.
The pick: Maryland. Clemson will be missing its starting left tackle and starting left guard.
Cincinnati -10 1/2 at Akron—Unless Cincy goes into this game assuming its going to win easily, the Bearcats should win easily over an out-manned Akron team. It’s one thing beating Syracuse (which the Zips did a few weeks ago) and another handling one of the fastest teams in the country.
The pick: Cincinnati, which looked good with new QB Tony Pike.
Houston +10½ at East Carolina—This is a play against Houston as much as it’s one on East Carolina. The Cougars have now lost their last two games by three points each and saw a possible winning TD pass be intercepted in the final seconds last week against Colorado State. They're in no shape to play at East Carolina after those two defeats.
East Carolina lost its perfect season last week, but now can concentrate on winning the conference and shining for the bowl scouts. Too much speed and power awaits Houston.
The pick: East Carolina (best bet).
San Jose State +3 at Hawaii—San Jose looked sharp last week putting away San Diego State, but playing at Hawaii is another thing. The Warriors are one of the toughest home teams in all of college football, and until proven otherwise, we’ll take them when only laying three points. The Warriors play like a team possessed at home.
The pick: Hawaii, which also gets its starting QB back from the injured list.
Idaho +11 at San Diego State—The Aztecs, who tried to run the ball last week, will return to the short passing game (employed against Notre Dame) against Idaho. And what a welcome visitor Idaho is! The Vandals have lost 8 of their last 9 road games by 14 or more and lost that ninth game by 8 points. Their only victory this year was against Idaho State, which hasn’t had a winning record in five years.
The pick: San Diego State (best bet), which had a week off to get ready and a coach that needs a win.
Arkansas State -2 at Memphis—The bandwagon for the Red Wolves is getting louder each week. After easily defeating Middle Tennessee last week, Arkansas State now finds itself as a slight favorite on the road at Memphis. The Tigers lost two heartbreakers, to Rice and Marshall, before thrashing Nicholls State last week. Memphis has won only 3 of its last 13 home games against BCS opponents. And two of those were vs. UAB and SMU.
The pick: Arkansas State, which won at Texas A&M earlier this year.
Last Week: 8-6; Season: 33-22-1
Second Thoughts
On the surface, Penn State looks like a scoring machine, but Illinois has had a week off to get ready for this, and it could be a lot closer than most think….Virginia Tech has had one tough game after another, but the Hokies only seem to get tougher from it. This week they visit Nebraska, a team trying to find out how good they are under new coach Bo Pellini. Surprisingly, Tech is a TD underdog, a proposition that looks very inviting.
Texas should roll over Arkansas in a game postponed from a few weeks ago…Wisconsin goes into Michigan at a time when Wolverine coach Rich Rodriguez is still searching for the right men to play his offense. Don’t expect Michigan to figure it out this week….Colorado, although at a speed disadvantage, can upset FSU on the road this week. The Seminoles are feeling the heat all over from an offense that can’t get unplugged…. Both New Mexico and Washington State lost their starting QBs last week. For WSU, the news keeps getting worse because Oregon comes to town, a team playing its fourth QB of the year, but decidedly more powerful. As for New Mexico, the Lobos could find trouble at New Mexico State, which just won at UTEP last week.
Louisiana Lafayette might give Kansas State more than it bargained for when the game was booked. The LL boys nearly toppled Illinois two weeks ago….The line on Western Kentucky at Kentucky has dropped two points this week.
Follow the Money
This week the money has landed on the following teams:
Arkansas State has moved from pick 'em to -2 1/2 at Memphis....
Ball State has moved from -18 to -22 vs. Kent State despite losngWR/KR Dante Love....
Stanford's moved from +4 1/2 to +3 at Washington....
Marshall's moved from +17 to to + 14 1/2 at West Virginia....
New Mexico State moved from + 4 1/2 to +3 vs. New Mexico...
Oregon's moved from -19 1/2 to -21 1/2 at Washington State...
Penn State's gone from -14 to -15 1/2 vs. Illinois and
Maryland's moved from +12 to +10 1/2 at Clemson.
--30--
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Thursday, September 18, 2008
No Easy Road for Florida, Georgia
Both Florida and Georgia are up against tough road games this week. The two SEC top-fivers might find themselves out of the national picture if they can’t pull off a victory, and each is favored by at least a TD. Florida travels to Tennessee where the Gators have struggled their last two trips, and Georgia goes West for the first time this decade to take on Arizona State in a hostile situation.
Nothing Could Be Finer Than to Bet on Carolina
It looks like former Miami coach Butch Davis has himself a team at North Carolina this year. The Tar Heels speed was evident in their victory over Rutgers 10 days ago, and they’ll have a packed house when they host a down Va. Tech team this week.
We also like N.C. State, which is hosting a possibly over-confident East Carolina team Saturday. N.C. State coach Tom O’Brien is feeling the heat and we think his team will respond. This is a similar situation to the one Louisville had before thumping Kansas State Wednesday night.
There’s No Place like Home
This week 12 of our 14 picks are home teams. And in these six cases that follow, you’ll find a favorite theme of ours: going against a team coming off of a big emotional game—especially if they’re on the road. This week we’re going against Temple (lost on a Hail Mary), Mississippi State (lost 3-2 to Auburn, has LSU next), East Carolina (still coming down after two huge wins at home, visits a desperate N.C. State team), Middle Tennessee (lost in last second at Kentucky), and Ohio State (had lunch handed to them by USC, now hosts hungry Troy team).
This Week's Best Bets: North Carolina, BYU, Georgia Tech
This Week's Live Dogs: Tennessee, Arizona State, Auburn, Troy, Wake Forest, UCLA and N.C. State.
Saturday
Florida -7½ at Tennessee—Ever see Tennessee coach Phillip Fulmer field questions at his Tuesday press conference? Nobody has ever looked more uncomfortable in a button down white shirt. And once more Fulmer has a reason to sweat: his job is on the line this week against Florida. Losing to UCLA was a bummer and beating up on UAB last week really didn’t help much. Fullmer needs to beat Florida to get a reprieve, and he usually finds a way when his back is to the wall.
Florida is good, mind you, but they’re still without a running game, and the return of Percy Harvin isn’t going to mean the holes will be open for him. Of course there’s nothing wrong with the Gator defense which held Miami to three points. But we think the Vols will have last year’s 59-20 drubbing by Florida on their minds, and they’ve played the Gators awfully tough the last two meetings in Knoxville, losing 21-20 in ’06 and winning 30-28 in ’04.
The pick: Tennessee. This is too many points to give the Vols at home with so much on the line.
Georgia -7 at Arizona State—Arizona State has had this game circled for months, which could be the reason they let UNLV slip past them last week. The Sun Devils may not be as good as last year’s team that opened the season 8-0, but they know they have a chance to earn respect back with a big national TV win over Georgia. The Bulldogs are solid on defense and may be better through the air than on the ground this week. But we’d be surprised if this one wasn’t close.
The pick: Arizona State.
LSU -2 1/2 at Auburn—Tommy Tuberville’s a great coach. He’s had Auburn in the national picture the last five years. He’s got a new offense that’s not working but his defense is carrying the day. In fact the Auburn defense has given up 20 points or less 23 of its last 29 games. And this match-up has been dead tight the last four meetings, with six points being the largest margin of victory. LSU’s supposed to be loaded again, but the feeling here is that somehow Auburn’s defense will get the job done.
The pick: LSU, considering that the home team has won every game in this series during this decade.
Troy + 20 1/2 at Ohio State—Expect the Buckeyes to be suffering a hangover after the trouncing they took at USC. And we don’t see Jim Tressel risking the season on bringing Beanie Wells back this week. So no Beanie means no running game and the experienced Troy defense can tee off on the OSU QBs.
Troy, on the other hand, is capable of an upset. They soundly defeated Middle Tennessee on the road in their opener and MTSU went on to beat Maryland and lose in the final seconds at Kentucky. And Troy coach Larry Blakeney has a history of playing tough against the big boys. Last year he scared the pants off Florida State and a few years back there was that historic upset of Missouri.
The pick: Troy.
Temple +28 1/2 at Penn State—Temple’s been through two straight heart-breaking losses and now must go on the road against a rival that’s looking to roll it up to move up in the polls. Al Golden might be a candidate someday for Paterno’s job, but this day he gets a lesson on recruiting.
The pick: Penn State.
Miami (Ohio) +11 1/2 at Cincinnati—Even without their No.1 quarterback, Dustin Grutza, Cincinnati’s athletes tower over Miami of Ohio’s. The Bearcats will go with 5th-year QB Tony Pike, who nearly won the job in spring practice. Cincy’s won this game big in three of the last four years and blew out the Redhawks (at Miami) last year. Speed rules the day.
The pick: Cincinnati, which has a coaching edge too with Brian Kelly.
Wyoming +27 1/2 at BYU—Okay, maybe BYU won’t be as sharp as they were taking UCLA apart last week. And maybe Wyoming won’t be as bad as they looked nearly losing to North Dakota State (needed a field goal at 0:04 to win it after trailing by 13), and if that’s the case and you get Wyoming’s best effort and BYU’s worst, the Cougars should still win by at least 30. Max Hall should be able to throw all day on these guys. Last year in this game he threw 40 times and was never touched. Look for 1,000 yards.
The pick: BYU (best bet). Last year the Cougars went through the motions for a 35-10 victory at Wyoming. Two years ago it was 55-7 back in Provo. Look for a similar score this time.
Mississippi State +7 1/2 at Georgia Tech—Georgia Tech’s defense has been a pleasant surprise and their option offense is coming together fast. It’s also a bitch to prepare for in five days. On top of that Miss. State is coming off of a brutally tough 3-2 loss to Auburn and is looking ahead to LSU next week. No way they’re ready for this one.
The pick: Georgia Tech (best bet).
Virginia Tech +3 at North Carolina—If Frank Beamer had kept Tyrod Taylor on the redshirt list for this whole year, he might be staring at losing record. Taylor is their speed on offense and their only running game. We can now see how much they miss WR Eddie Royal (lighting it up for Denver in the NFL), and the other QB, Sean Glennon, has lost his confidence.
North Carolina, though, is better than advertised and was much faster than Rutgers last week. And don’t forget that Rutgers recruited half of its team from Florida. It looks like the Tar Heels have arrived, and a victory at home over the Hokies would be huge for them.
The pick: North Carolina (best bet), which is a very solid home team. Last year the Tar Heels began this turn around by beating Miami at home.
Wake Forest +5 at Florida State—The last time QB Riley Skinner led a Wake Forest team into Tallahassee, the Demon Deacons won 30-0. Expecting revenge, the favored Seminoles lost again at Wake last year, 24-21. Unless FSU has improved tremendously, this should be a tight game again, and four points is too much to pass up.
The pick: Wake Forest.
Boise State +10 at Oregon—This line dropped from 12 because Oregon lost QB Justin Roper for a month. But Oregon is bigger and faster than Boise and is not going to get taken by surprise. The Ducks are still undefeated and have a good shot at a BCS bowl. Go with the speed. Oregon has lots of ways to beat you, especially at home.
The pick: Oregon.
East Carolina -7 at N. C. State—This is a very good East Carolina team. But after winning two huge, emotional games vs. Va. Tech and W. Va. at home, the Pirates took a breather and nearly lost at Tulane last week. What they did lose was their top LB, Quentin Cotton to knee surgery. Skip Holtz is sure to get their attention after the close call, but this is another road game against a team desperate for a win (see Cal vs. Maryland and Kansas State vs. Louisville). Tom O’Brien needs this very badly. The Wolfpack defense will find a way to pull it out, or at least keep it close.
The pick: N.C. State.
Arizona -3 1/2 at UCLA—This game opened at Pick ‘em and the bettors have jumped on Arizona ever since. UCLA suffered a huge letdown and big embarrassment at BYU last week. Now you can expect their best again. Last year the Bruins lost by 38 at Utah and came home and beat Washington by 13 a week later. Then after losing by 14 at pitiful Notre Dame, UCLA upset Cal by 9 at home.
And besides, I’m not sold on Arizona being that good yet, especially on the road. But somebody likes them to push the line this far in their favor.
The pick: UCLA, at home, where they shine.
Middle Tennessee State + 5 1/2 at Arkansas State—These are two very good teams, capable of beating most BCS schools on the right day. But Middle Tennessee is coming off of two very big emotional efforts, the latest a last-second, heartbreaking loss at Kentucky. Now they’re on the road again against a solid team. Something’s gotta give and we think it will be the Blue Raiders.
The pick: Arkansas State. The line began the week at 4½ and has gradually risen.
Second Thoughts
Season to date: 25-16-1; Last week: 5-9
Best Bets Season: 6-3; Best Bets last week: 1-2
Last week was a tough one for us, losing best bet Fresno State by a point after the Bulldogs had several chances to win the game, and also losing best bet Ark. State 27-24 after it looked like they might win it in the last two minutes. It was also no fun watching Boise go scoreless in the second half after building a 20-0 lead. Which leads me to the notion of taking double-digit favorites that you like and playing them in the first half. You can use this tool either instead of, or in addition to, your game bet. Why? Because how many times have you seen a big fave build a huge first-half lead and then cruise in the second half? Like Boise did last Saturday.
Despite the line dropping from over 14 to 11, we like UConn’s chance of rolling past Baylor Friday night. Baylor’s improved under Art Briles but they’re not ready to face this tough a running game and this good a defense…
Fresno’s another team in a tough spot going on the road after a tough loss…Utah line has shot up this week, despite Air Force’s impressive win at Houston….West Virginia has much to prove but it won’t be easy in the thin Colorado air against a Dan Hawkins team Thursday….Alabama might have a problem facing a hopped up Arkansas team under Bobby Petrino. Game could be a close one….And the Rutgers line has been going up like the Knights have already beaten Navy by two TDs.
--30--
Nothing Could Be Finer Than to Bet on Carolina
It looks like former Miami coach Butch Davis has himself a team at North Carolina this year. The Tar Heels speed was evident in their victory over Rutgers 10 days ago, and they’ll have a packed house when they host a down Va. Tech team this week.
We also like N.C. State, which is hosting a possibly over-confident East Carolina team Saturday. N.C. State coach Tom O’Brien is feeling the heat and we think his team will respond. This is a similar situation to the one Louisville had before thumping Kansas State Wednesday night.
There’s No Place like Home
This week 12 of our 14 picks are home teams. And in these six cases that follow, you’ll find a favorite theme of ours: going against a team coming off of a big emotional game—especially if they’re on the road. This week we’re going against Temple (lost on a Hail Mary), Mississippi State (lost 3-2 to Auburn, has LSU next), East Carolina (still coming down after two huge wins at home, visits a desperate N.C. State team), Middle Tennessee (lost in last second at Kentucky), and Ohio State (had lunch handed to them by USC, now hosts hungry Troy team).
This Week's Best Bets: North Carolina, BYU, Georgia Tech
This Week's Live Dogs: Tennessee, Arizona State, Auburn, Troy, Wake Forest, UCLA and N.C. State.
Saturday
Florida -7½ at Tennessee—Ever see Tennessee coach Phillip Fulmer field questions at his Tuesday press conference? Nobody has ever looked more uncomfortable in a button down white shirt. And once more Fulmer has a reason to sweat: his job is on the line this week against Florida. Losing to UCLA was a bummer and beating up on UAB last week really didn’t help much. Fullmer needs to beat Florida to get a reprieve, and he usually finds a way when his back is to the wall.
Florida is good, mind you, but they’re still without a running game, and the return of Percy Harvin isn’t going to mean the holes will be open for him. Of course there’s nothing wrong with the Gator defense which held Miami to three points. But we think the Vols will have last year’s 59-20 drubbing by Florida on their minds, and they’ve played the Gators awfully tough the last two meetings in Knoxville, losing 21-20 in ’06 and winning 30-28 in ’04.
The pick: Tennessee. This is too many points to give the Vols at home with so much on the line.
Georgia -7 at Arizona State—Arizona State has had this game circled for months, which could be the reason they let UNLV slip past them last week. The Sun Devils may not be as good as last year’s team that opened the season 8-0, but they know they have a chance to earn respect back with a big national TV win over Georgia. The Bulldogs are solid on defense and may be better through the air than on the ground this week. But we’d be surprised if this one wasn’t close.
The pick: Arizona State.
LSU -2 1/2 at Auburn—Tommy Tuberville’s a great coach. He’s had Auburn in the national picture the last five years. He’s got a new offense that’s not working but his defense is carrying the day. In fact the Auburn defense has given up 20 points or less 23 of its last 29 games. And this match-up has been dead tight the last four meetings, with six points being the largest margin of victory. LSU’s supposed to be loaded again, but the feeling here is that somehow Auburn’s defense will get the job done.
The pick: LSU, considering that the home team has won every game in this series during this decade.
Troy + 20 1/2 at Ohio State—Expect the Buckeyes to be suffering a hangover after the trouncing they took at USC. And we don’t see Jim Tressel risking the season on bringing Beanie Wells back this week. So no Beanie means no running game and the experienced Troy defense can tee off on the OSU QBs.
Troy, on the other hand, is capable of an upset. They soundly defeated Middle Tennessee on the road in their opener and MTSU went on to beat Maryland and lose in the final seconds at Kentucky. And Troy coach Larry Blakeney has a history of playing tough against the big boys. Last year he scared the pants off Florida State and a few years back there was that historic upset of Missouri.
The pick: Troy.
Temple +28 1/2 at Penn State—Temple’s been through two straight heart-breaking losses and now must go on the road against a rival that’s looking to roll it up to move up in the polls. Al Golden might be a candidate someday for Paterno’s job, but this day he gets a lesson on recruiting.
The pick: Penn State.
Miami (Ohio) +11 1/2 at Cincinnati—Even without their No.1 quarterback, Dustin Grutza, Cincinnati’s athletes tower over Miami of Ohio’s. The Bearcats will go with 5th-year QB Tony Pike, who nearly won the job in spring practice. Cincy’s won this game big in three of the last four years and blew out the Redhawks (at Miami) last year. Speed rules the day.
The pick: Cincinnati, which has a coaching edge too with Brian Kelly.
Wyoming +27 1/2 at BYU—Okay, maybe BYU won’t be as sharp as they were taking UCLA apart last week. And maybe Wyoming won’t be as bad as they looked nearly losing to North Dakota State (needed a field goal at 0:04 to win it after trailing by 13), and if that’s the case and you get Wyoming’s best effort and BYU’s worst, the Cougars should still win by at least 30. Max Hall should be able to throw all day on these guys. Last year in this game he threw 40 times and was never touched. Look for 1,000 yards.
The pick: BYU (best bet). Last year the Cougars went through the motions for a 35-10 victory at Wyoming. Two years ago it was 55-7 back in Provo. Look for a similar score this time.
Mississippi State +7 1/2 at Georgia Tech—Georgia Tech’s defense has been a pleasant surprise and their option offense is coming together fast. It’s also a bitch to prepare for in five days. On top of that Miss. State is coming off of a brutally tough 3-2 loss to Auburn and is looking ahead to LSU next week. No way they’re ready for this one.
The pick: Georgia Tech (best bet).
Virginia Tech +3 at North Carolina—If Frank Beamer had kept Tyrod Taylor on the redshirt list for this whole year, he might be staring at losing record. Taylor is their speed on offense and their only running game. We can now see how much they miss WR Eddie Royal (lighting it up for Denver in the NFL), and the other QB, Sean Glennon, has lost his confidence.
North Carolina, though, is better than advertised and was much faster than Rutgers last week. And don’t forget that Rutgers recruited half of its team from Florida. It looks like the Tar Heels have arrived, and a victory at home over the Hokies would be huge for them.
The pick: North Carolina (best bet), which is a very solid home team. Last year the Tar Heels began this turn around by beating Miami at home.
Wake Forest +5 at Florida State—The last time QB Riley Skinner led a Wake Forest team into Tallahassee, the Demon Deacons won 30-0. Expecting revenge, the favored Seminoles lost again at Wake last year, 24-21. Unless FSU has improved tremendously, this should be a tight game again, and four points is too much to pass up.
The pick: Wake Forest.
Boise State +10 at Oregon—This line dropped from 12 because Oregon lost QB Justin Roper for a month. But Oregon is bigger and faster than Boise and is not going to get taken by surprise. The Ducks are still undefeated and have a good shot at a BCS bowl. Go with the speed. Oregon has lots of ways to beat you, especially at home.
The pick: Oregon.
East Carolina -7 at N. C. State—This is a very good East Carolina team. But after winning two huge, emotional games vs. Va. Tech and W. Va. at home, the Pirates took a breather and nearly lost at Tulane last week. What they did lose was their top LB, Quentin Cotton to knee surgery. Skip Holtz is sure to get their attention after the close call, but this is another road game against a team desperate for a win (see Cal vs. Maryland and Kansas State vs. Louisville). Tom O’Brien needs this very badly. The Wolfpack defense will find a way to pull it out, or at least keep it close.
The pick: N.C. State.
Arizona -3 1/2 at UCLA—This game opened at Pick ‘em and the bettors have jumped on Arizona ever since. UCLA suffered a huge letdown and big embarrassment at BYU last week. Now you can expect their best again. Last year the Bruins lost by 38 at Utah and came home and beat Washington by 13 a week later. Then after losing by 14 at pitiful Notre Dame, UCLA upset Cal by 9 at home.
And besides, I’m not sold on Arizona being that good yet, especially on the road. But somebody likes them to push the line this far in their favor.
The pick: UCLA, at home, where they shine.
Middle Tennessee State + 5 1/2 at Arkansas State—These are two very good teams, capable of beating most BCS schools on the right day. But Middle Tennessee is coming off of two very big emotional efforts, the latest a last-second, heartbreaking loss at Kentucky. Now they’re on the road again against a solid team. Something’s gotta give and we think it will be the Blue Raiders.
The pick: Arkansas State. The line began the week at 4½ and has gradually risen.
Second Thoughts
Season to date: 25-16-1; Last week: 5-9
Best Bets Season: 6-3; Best Bets last week: 1-2
Last week was a tough one for us, losing best bet Fresno State by a point after the Bulldogs had several chances to win the game, and also losing best bet Ark. State 27-24 after it looked like they might win it in the last two minutes. It was also no fun watching Boise go scoreless in the second half after building a 20-0 lead. Which leads me to the notion of taking double-digit favorites that you like and playing them in the first half. You can use this tool either instead of, or in addition to, your game bet. Why? Because how many times have you seen a big fave build a huge first-half lead and then cruise in the second half? Like Boise did last Saturday.
Despite the line dropping from over 14 to 11, we like UConn’s chance of rolling past Baylor Friday night. Baylor’s improved under Art Briles but they’re not ready to face this tough a running game and this good a defense…
Fresno’s another team in a tough spot going on the road after a tough loss…Utah line has shot up this week, despite Air Force’s impressive win at Houston….West Virginia has much to prove but it won’t be easy in the thin Colorado air against a Dan Hawkins team Thursday….Alabama might have a problem facing a hopped up Arkansas team under Bobby Petrino. Game could be a close one….And the Rutgers line has been going up like the Knights have already beaten Navy by two TDs.
--30--
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
USC to Make Buckeyes Latest Victim
When USC hosts Ohio State Saturday night at the Coliseum, America will be treated to one the great settings for college football. With nearly 100,000 fans packing the 1932 Olympic stadium, with the SC band playing “Fight on for ol’ SC” (composed in 1922) while the Trojan horse and rider cavort around the track— well, there’s nothing quite like it.Last Week: 9-4-1; Overall: 20-7-1
Best Bets: 2-1; Best Bets overall: 5-1
Underdogs 4-1-1 Dogs overall: 8-2-1
And let’s not leave out those magnificent SC Song Girls. Hollywood is waiting in line when they graduate and half of them are first-round draft picks for “Deal or No Deal.” It’s tough to beat the atmosphere, unless, of course, you hate the Trojans. But that might be financial suicide this week.
We’re 20-7-1 (74%) going into this week, a record that might be tough to sustain. Regardless, we’re taking our best shots again this week. Here’s how we see the weekend shaping up:
Friday
Kansas +3 1/2 at South Florida—This was the hardest game of the week to pick. It comes down to Kansas being super sharp with Todd Reesing throwing the ball, and South Florida still somewhat focused on last Saturday’s UCF overtime game.
The Bulls are tough at home but lost two great CBs to the NFL, which will make their pass defense a little vulnerable to the Kansas attack. And even though they haven’t showed it yet, we think Mark Mangino’s team will be able to run a little on the Bulls, too.
The pick: Kansas for two reasons: (1) the 3 1/2 points, and (2) the Jayhwaks were 5-0 on the road last year.
Saturday
Ohio State +11 at USC—The Trojans, under Pete Carroll, are practically unbeatable at home in a big game. Sure they lost last year when they had a ton of injuries taking Stanford lightly. But in big games the last three years they have beaten UCLA, Notre Dame, Nebraska, Oregon, Cal and Arkansas, all by at least 14 points. In some cases by much, much more.
Not that we’re looking for a blowout of Ohio State, mind you. But even though we don’t think the Buckeyes are anywhere near what they appeared to be last week against Ohio, they do appear to be behind Southern Cal. And again, Carroll loves to win these games big.
The pick: USC (best bet). A 14-point margin will do.
Michigan -2 at Notre Dame—Both these teams have problems. Other than at quarterback, we know Michigan has plenty of talent out there. Not so sure about the Irish. Can’t believe they’d try to sandbag everyone by nearly losing to San Diego State.
It used to be you could never bet against Notre Dame as a home dog. Some people built mansions taking the Irish plus points in South Bend. But last year they lost six times at home, yes, six! And two of those losses were to Navy and Air Force. Until they prove otherwise, we can’t see any reason to take them in this spot.
The pick: Michigan.
Oklahoma -20½ at Washington—Bob Stoops couldn’t have picked a more perfect time to visit Seattle. The Huskies just lost a heartbreaker and will have a hard time focusing on the Sooners. The difference in speed between the two clubs is huge, so even with the home field we can’t see Washington hanging in there for more than a half.
The pick: Oklahoma.
Georgia Tech +6½ at Virginia Tech—Hokie coach Frank Beamer isn’t acting like a coach expecting to win. He’s acting more like a coach with problems. After losing their opener to E. Carolina and leading Furman only 3-0 at halftime, Beamer has muzzled both of his QBs and refuses to discuss the QB situation himself. Other problems facing Beamer: (1) his defense has just one sack in two weeks and (2) the Georgia Tech triple-option offense.
Paul Johnson’s Yellow Jackets looked good winning at Boston College. They’ll find that this team is faster, but it might not matter. They’ve got a quarterback in Josh Nesbitt, who can make up for a lot of mistakes.
The pick: Georgia Tech.
Cal –14 at Maryland—Maybe Ralph Friedgen can work a miracle for Maryland. After all, he’s supposed to be a terrific offensive coach, isn’t he? If he doesn’t find an effective QB soon, he might be an ex miracle worker. The Terps couldn’t score last year and, and losing 24-14 last week to Middle Tennessee just exposed their problems more.
Jeff Tedford must go to either track meets or jail breaks to recruit, because he’s got the fastest team we’ve ever seen at Cal. Last week, Washington State literally looked like it was nailed to the turf while the Bears ran wild (66-3). (See Jahvid Best’s 80 and 86-yard TD runs).
The pick: Cal. We hate laying double digits on the road but this just looks to good.
Wisconsin -2 at Fresno State—This is a night game at Fresno which means the entire city will shut down for this one. The Bulldogs don’t get “real” teams like Wisconsin to come to town that often, so coach Pat Hill had took a week off to get ready. Other BCS teams that visited haven’t fared well, with Oregon State and losing in ’06 and Kansas State getting burned last year. Only Oregon pulled out a 31-24 victory at Fresno.
Against Rutgers in the opener, the Bulldogs played well, especially against the run,
holding the Scarlet Knights to 106 rushing yards on 34 carries—an important stat considering Wisconsin’s strong ground game.
Wisconsin has played Akron and Marshall and been sloppy in the first half of both games, but has buried both opponents in the second half. P.J. Hill is still the big workhorse, so expect this one to be a slugfest.
The pick: Fresno State (best bet).
Stanford + 13½ at TCU—TCU has been flying under the radar. Their 26-3 victory at New Mexico in the opener was startling, because the Lobos are tough at home, and the Horned Frogs simply dominated. Beating a name opponent from a BCS conference like Stanford, has to be very appealing to TCU, which can make a statement with the win, similar to when they beat Texas Tech two years ago. And remember that TCU won a barnburner at Stanford last year, 38-36, and finished the year strong winning five of their last seven, losing close calls to BYU and Utah.
The Cardinal looked more like Stanford last week, falling apart in the fourth quarter at Arizona State. They’ll probably save their best efforts for the next three weeks when they have winnable games vs. San Jose State, Washington and Notre Dame.
The pick: TCU. This line opened at 12, so you can who the money likes.
Hawaii +13 at Oregon State—This will be short. Hawaii isn’t as bad as they looked against Florida and Oregon State hasn’t done anything to gain our confidence, getting killed by Penn State and losing the opener to Stanford. The Warriors still have plenty of athletes and love to throw the ball around.
The pick: Hawaii.
Bowling Green +16½ at Boise State—Quick, when is the last time Boise lost a game at home? Well, in the last six years Boise hasn’t lost a regular-season game at home, period. They did lose to Boston College a few years back in a bowl game played on their big blue field.
And when you consider that you’re giving a little over two touchdowns here, it’s comforting to know that the Broncos have won 35 of their last 40 home games by 16 or more. Yes, Bowling Green beat Pitt, and they also were soundly beaten at home last week by Minnesota. The only problem with taking Boise is they’ve got Oregon next week, and have to be looking ahead some.
The pick: Boise State, despite the look ahead, they’ve still got Ian Johnson running the ball and pretty tough defense.
Ball State -7 at Akron—It was no accident that Akron won at Syracuse last week. The Zips out gained the Orange in nearly every department including time of possession. The week before Akron played Wisconsin tough for a half, trailing just 17-10 at the break.
There’s no doubt Nate Davis has talented cast of offensive players around him at Ball State. But this is a sandwich game for the Cardinals, between their TV game against Navy and next week’s in-state rivalry with Indiana.
The pick: Akron, which has a solid record at home, especially as a dog.
Southern Miss +2½ at Arkansas State—A year ago the Arkansas State Red Wolves nearly won their opener at Texas. This year they did win at Texas A&M sending panic in Aggieland. The Red Wolves then followed it up with 83-10 mauling of Texas Southern while licking their chops waiting for Southern Miss to come to Jonesboro.
This is a classic situation of a supposed underdog circling a big-name BCS opponent, while that opponent, Southern Miss, had given its best shot the week before (at Auburn).
With QB Corey Leonard and RBs Reggie Arnold and Derek Lawson leading the way, Ark. State is out to prove the A&M win was no fluke.
The pick: Arkansas State (best bet).
Temple + 6 at Buffalo—After Buffalo kicked the crap out of UTEP, then played very competitively at Pitt last week, it’s obvious they’re a better team than Temple. The question is, can they focus on the Owls knowing they play at Missouri next week? We think the answer is yes.
Turner Gill is not about to let a victory slip out of the win column this year. He’s done a great job at Buffalo and came close to getting the Nebraska job. This year’s team is already good, getting better.
As for Temple, last week’s loss was a heartbreaker in OT to a hated rival, and it had to take a ton out of them. Can’t see them being ready for this game with the same enthusiasm.
The pick: Buffalo, with conviction.
Second Thoughts
A quick note on the games we analyze: Sometimes we might leave an attractive matchup off of our grid, like UCLA at BYU this week, simply because we don’t have a strong opinion. Other times we’ll use games between lesser known teams (Temple vs. Buffalo) because we do have a definite opinion. The object is to get you winners….
Iowa State travels to Iowa this week for its annual battle with the Hawkeyes. And before you jump to give the Cyclones 13½, consider this: Iowa State has scored 40+ in both of their games (2-0) and looked a helluva lot better thumping Kent State than Boston College did. Also, this game rarely is a blowout….Elsewhere, Oregon’s speed should overwhelm Purdue, but we’re still unsure about Oregon’s QB situation….
If Syracuse doesn’t make a significant stand against Penn State this week, coach Robinson may be able to remove the “coach” label from his shirts. Nearly a four TD favorite, don’t expect Joe Paterno to take pity on the ‘Cuse. It’s more likely his Lions may let down after looking at the game tapes of Syracuse losing at home to Akron last week or seeing them get trounced 30-10 at Northwestern two weeks ago….
Hosting Navy this week, Duke, surprisingly, is a slight favorite. One reason could be the improvement seen by the Blue Devils under new coach Dave Cutcliffe. Last week in an unfortunate loss to Northwestern, Duke doubled NW’s first downs 28-14 and held the ball for nearly 40 minutes….
Middle Tennessee crushed Maryland last week, 28-14. In a similar situation a year ago the Blue Raiders lost a barnburner with Louisville. This week they travel to Kentucky, a team who should not be caught by surprise at this point, but Middle Tennessee is still getting a juicy 16 points against a team that lost most of its offensive stars from last year.
UCLA looks tempting plus 8 at BYU, but until the Bruins show they can play tough on the road, will assume they’ll follow traditional patterns until Rick Neuheisel changes that.
Arkansas gained a lot of confidence winning its opening two games in the last minute. Only thing was, they were against pee-wee teams Western Ill. and U.L. Monroe. Texas, if not too over-confident, should win this going away, but this game has been rescheduled to be played two weeks from now, Sept. 27, due to Ike… If the Auburn line at Miss. State looks low its because the Tigers are probably looking ahead to LSU next week.
Take the over every week if Tulsa’s David Bryant can keep tossing six TDs like he did against N. Texas….Oklahoma State has found itself “a man” at WR in Dez Bryant, who caught nine balls last week for 236 yards and returned a punt for 71 more.
--30--
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Another Big Weekend: 9-4-1
Last Weekend: 9-4-1 (20-7-1 overall)
Did Florida Try to Cover?
You bet they did. Ahead of Miami 23-3 with barely over a minute to go, Florida coach Urban Meyer wasn’t satisfied with taking a knee. Instead his team was passing its way down the field, and even threw incomplete into the end zone. The only thing that stopped the Gators was running out of downs. So, instead of taking a knee, Meyer trotted his field goal kicker out for an easy 29-yarder that yielded a push for all those Gator fans who gave the 23.
Whatever happened to sportsmanship? It doesn’t exist in in-state rivalries, even rivalries that are played just every five years like this one. Meyer has always been about piling on, even going back to his days coaching Bowling Green.
And did you notice the cold greeting Miami coach Randy Shannon gave Meyer after the game? Shannon sprinted out to midfield, touched Meyer’s hand like it was a handoff in a relay race, and kept on sprinting past. There’s no doubt he was not happy about the Gators trying to rub it in. In fact, when his team got the ball with 20 seconds remaining, it did what Florida should have, taking a knee, thus ending the game.
You Gotta Love Brian Kelly
You gotta love Cincy coach Brian Kelly. ABC played a pregame conversation between Kelly and Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops. As Kelly looked around the stadium, which was quickly filling up, he teased Stoops, saying, “Looks like you might have a sellout today.” Stoops, though, didn’t know he was being kidded. “We’ve sold out every game for 10 straight years,” he said. “Yes,” Kelly responded, "and you’re also 54-2.”
Kelly’s team was much faster than we thought, and although we had Oklahoma as a best bet (the Sooners did eventually cover), there’s no doubt that the Bearcats were the faster team. The lack of depth was the eventual difference between the two. But before you jump on Kelly’s team next week, make sure their backup QB, Tony Pike, can get the job done, now that starter Dustin Grutza is out for a month (broken leg). Pike was just 3-11 for 21 yards against Oklahoma.
Talk About Leaving the Cupboard Bare
When Bill Doba left Washington State last year he took it all with him. The program is a mess, recruiting has been dreadful and to make matters worse, the Cougars had eight scholarships pulled for lack of academic progress.
The results are showing under new coach Paul Wulff. Last week Oklahoma State visited Pullman and laid a 39-13 whipping on the Cougars. The difference in speed between the two teams was startling. Then on Saturday, Cal came into Pullman like it was their home field, and buried Wulff’s team 66-3.
Last week we warned you that Washington State’s only win this year might be against Portland State. Now we wouldn’t even bet on that. Against Cal, the Cougars looked like they were going in slow motion. What a sad state of affairs for alumnae like former ABC-TV great Keith Jackson.
Other Impressions Georgia Tech’s got themselves a terrific running QB, in Josh Nesbitt, to run coach Paul Johnson’s option attack….Houston Nutt’s got a pretty good passer too in Jevan Snead. There’s no doubt Mississippi is going to be a lot better this year….Notre Dame doesn’t look a drop better than last year’s slow team. And how embarrassing is it for Charlie Weiss to nearly lose at home to San Diego State, which lost the week before to Cal Poly. SDSU coach Chuck Long had difficulty answering the post-game question of who was better, Cal Poly or Notre Dame.
Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino is off to a very shaky 2-0 start after needing a TD in the final two minutes both against Western Ill. and U.L. Monroe to avoid embarrassing defeats. They're not going to be able to make the line high enough next week when the Hogs go to Texas. TCU is flying under the radar according to our Texas connection Cactus Jack. The Horned Frogs totally shut down New Mexico at New Mexico opening week, 26-3, holding the Lobos to just 56 rushing yards on 32 carries, and only 126 passing yards completing just 7 of 23 attempts. Last week they creamed Sephen F. Austin 67-7.
Baylor also has a pretty resourceful QB in freshman Robert Griffin. And let’s hear it for the Big 12, which went 12-0 last week….Boston College QB Chris Crane is better than advertised. He can throw accurately and isn’t afraid to tuck the ball under and take off….Akron beating Syracuse at Syracuse no less, was no accident. The Zips out-gained the Orange in nearly every category including time of possession. Now the question is, can they handle Ball State’s versatile attack this week?
Look for this Week's Picks This week’s picks will begin being posted Thursday, with our thoughts on N.C. State at Rutgers and Friday’s top 20 match of Kansas at South Florida
Did Florida Try to Cover?
You bet they did. Ahead of Miami 23-3 with barely over a minute to go, Florida coach Urban Meyer wasn’t satisfied with taking a knee. Instead his team was passing its way down the field, and even threw incomplete into the end zone. The only thing that stopped the Gators was running out of downs. So, instead of taking a knee, Meyer trotted his field goal kicker out for an easy 29-yarder that yielded a push for all those Gator fans who gave the 23.
Whatever happened to sportsmanship? It doesn’t exist in in-state rivalries, even rivalries that are played just every five years like this one. Meyer has always been about piling on, even going back to his days coaching Bowling Green.
And did you notice the cold greeting Miami coach Randy Shannon gave Meyer after the game? Shannon sprinted out to midfield, touched Meyer’s hand like it was a handoff in a relay race, and kept on sprinting past. There’s no doubt he was not happy about the Gators trying to rub it in. In fact, when his team got the ball with 20 seconds remaining, it did what Florida should have, taking a knee, thus ending the game.
You Gotta Love Brian Kelly
You gotta love Cincy coach Brian Kelly. ABC played a pregame conversation between Kelly and Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops. As Kelly looked around the stadium, which was quickly filling up, he teased Stoops, saying, “Looks like you might have a sellout today.” Stoops, though, didn’t know he was being kidded. “We’ve sold out every game for 10 straight years,” he said. “Yes,” Kelly responded, "and you’re also 54-2.”
Kelly’s team was much faster than we thought, and although we had Oklahoma as a best bet (the Sooners did eventually cover), there’s no doubt that the Bearcats were the faster team. The lack of depth was the eventual difference between the two. But before you jump on Kelly’s team next week, make sure their backup QB, Tony Pike, can get the job done, now that starter Dustin Grutza is out for a month (broken leg). Pike was just 3-11 for 21 yards against Oklahoma.
Talk About Leaving the Cupboard Bare
When Bill Doba left Washington State last year he took it all with him. The program is a mess, recruiting has been dreadful and to make matters worse, the Cougars had eight scholarships pulled for lack of academic progress.
The results are showing under new coach Paul Wulff. Last week Oklahoma State visited Pullman and laid a 39-13 whipping on the Cougars. The difference in speed between the two teams was startling. Then on Saturday, Cal came into Pullman like it was their home field, and buried Wulff’s team 66-3.
Last week we warned you that Washington State’s only win this year might be against Portland State. Now we wouldn’t even bet on that. Against Cal, the Cougars looked like they were going in slow motion. What a sad state of affairs for alumnae like former ABC-TV great Keith Jackson.
Other Impressions Georgia Tech’s got themselves a terrific running QB, in Josh Nesbitt, to run coach Paul Johnson’s option attack….Houston Nutt’s got a pretty good passer too in Jevan Snead. There’s no doubt Mississippi is going to be a lot better this year….Notre Dame doesn’t look a drop better than last year’s slow team. And how embarrassing is it for Charlie Weiss to nearly lose at home to San Diego State, which lost the week before to Cal Poly. SDSU coach Chuck Long had difficulty answering the post-game question of who was better, Cal Poly or Notre Dame.
Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino is off to a very shaky 2-0 start after needing a TD in the final two minutes both against Western Ill. and U.L. Monroe to avoid embarrassing defeats. They're not going to be able to make the line high enough next week when the Hogs go to Texas. TCU is flying under the radar according to our Texas connection Cactus Jack. The Horned Frogs totally shut down New Mexico at New Mexico opening week, 26-3, holding the Lobos to just 56 rushing yards on 32 carries, and only 126 passing yards completing just 7 of 23 attempts. Last week they creamed Sephen F. Austin 67-7.
Baylor also has a pretty resourceful QB in freshman Robert Griffin. And let’s hear it for the Big 12, which went 12-0 last week….Boston College QB Chris Crane is better than advertised. He can throw accurately and isn’t afraid to tuck the ball under and take off….Akron beating Syracuse at Syracuse no less, was no accident. The Zips out-gained the Orange in nearly every category including time of possession. Now the question is, can they handle Ball State’s versatile attack this week?
Look for this Week's Picks This week’s picks will begin being posted Thursday, with our thoughts on N.C. State at Rutgers and Friday’s top 20 match of Kansas at South Florida
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Off to a 12-3 Start; Look for Oklahoma & Nebraska to Roll
Last weekend:11-3 (9-1 through Saturday).
4 of the 5 dogs we picked won outright!
Best Bets : 3-0.
We already scored with our first best bet this week, Ball State.
Here's how the rest of the weekend shapes up:
You know it’s a lousy week for college football, when Miami at Florida is your headliner. Be careful, rain is forecast for most of the East Coast Saturday.
Saturday
Miami +23 at Florida—Florida looked fast in its victory over Hawaii. No surprise there. Miami has some issues to resolve. But this is a rivalry that might be played in a downpour (Hannah), so we’re inclined to take three plus touchdowns.
The pick: Miami, but not looking for an upset here.
Georgia Tech +6 1/2 at Boston College—Navy’s coaching loss in Tech’s gain. Paul Johnson has brought his option offense to Tech and the rest of the ACC better be ready.
B.C. looked good on defense vs. Kent but that was Kent, not Georgia Tech. The Eagles’ offense, however, looked very sluggish.
The pick: Georgia Tech, and if the rain reaches Boston, Tech’s chances should improve.
West Virginia -7 at East Carolina—This line has dropped after opening at 9 thanks to fans rushing to buy East Carolina after their stunning upset last week of Va. Tech. Pirate coach Skip Holtz is right to worry that his team might have a letdown, because most teams do in this spot.
The Mountaineers, who are loaded on offense once again with Patrick White and company, will not be caught off guard. Whether they can cover is another story, but we think they will.
The pick: West Virginia.
Cincinnati +22 at Oklahoma—Okay, so everyone is now in love with what Brian Kelly has done for the Bearcats. Last year was terrific and this year looks just as good. But this is Oklahoma we’re talking about, a team that loves to roll it up against out-manned competition, which Cincinnati is in this case.
The pick: Oklahoma (best bet). This could be revenge against the Big East for the whipping West Virginia gave the Sooners last January.
San Jose State +27 at Nebraska—Okay, San Diego State isn’t terrible but they did need a last second TD to beat UC Davis last week, 13-10. Which means for 59:52 all they could muster against Davis were six points. And now they go on the road against one of the most prolific scoring teams in the country. Take a look how the Spartans did on the road last year against decent competition: lost by 42 at Arizona State, lost by 20 at Kansas State, by 37 at Stanford, by 30 at Fresno State and by 35 at Boise State.
Nebraska seemed to score at will last week against top MAC contender W. Michigan—a team good enough to defeat SDSU. With Bo Pelini now coaching Nebraska the defense will improve, and behind QB Joe Ganz the offense will thrive. In their last three games last year (all losses) Nebraska averaged 40 points per game.
The pick: Nebraska (best bet).
Texas Tech -10 at Nevada—This looks like a perfect upset situation for Nevada, but hold on. Yes, Nevada upset a good Texas A&M team in this same spot a few years ago. And yes, the Wolves are tough at home, losing by just two to both Hawaii and Boise State last year. But before you leap for these Wolves, check out their spotty secondary. Last week it gave up 225 yards in the air to Grambling State.
Tech, on the other hand, looks even better than last year’s bowl team. Behind QB Graham Harrell the Red Raiders rolled up nearly 700 yards against Eastern Washington last week. And if you’re thinking Tech might lie down on the road, consider they’ve covered five of their last six as a double-digit road favorite.
The pick: Texas Tech.
BYU -9 at Washington—Can Washington be this bad to be nearly a double-digit dog at home? If you saw them against Oregon you had to notice the lack of speed the Huskies had. Things don’t get any easier for Tyrone Willingham’s bunch because they play Oklahoma next week. So expect the Huskies to treat their home field as if it were the Alamo, and hold on for dear life.
The pick: Washington, reluctantly. This could be a very long season for the Huskies if they lose this one.
Texas A&M -2 at New Mexico—This looks like it could be disaster for A&M new coach Mike Sherman. After losing their opener to Arkansas State, the Aggies now take on the Lobos who shocked Texas Tech in a similar spot four years ago.
But consider this: The Lobos looked awful getting crushed by TCU 26-3 last week, at home no less, and Sherman knows his grace period with Aggie fans is over. He has to win this game and he’ll do it with defense because the Lobos’ offensive line is in trouble. After losing four starters from last year’s line, New Mexico gave up five sacks to TCU and can expect more of the same this week.
The pick: Texas A&M in a game both coaches need to win.
Mississippi +7 1/2 at Wake Forest—Mississippi looked sharp for Houston Nutt against Memphis last week and will have to crank it up a notch to stay with Wake. The Deacons looked sharp against Baylor, but they might be looking ahead to their game against Florida State next week. The weather might affect this game also.
The pick: Mississippi.
South Florida -13½ at UCF—Last year South Florida literally crushed UCF 64-12 in a backyard brawl. And that was after UCF had won at N.C. State and nearly beat Texas. It seems that the Bulls took it personally that UCF was trying to win the recruiting battle in mid-Florida.
Since then both teams have lost some sparkling talent, but UCF seems to have been hit the hardest, losing 2000-yard rusher Kevin Smith, who did an about face on the Knights after he said he was staying. It certainly showed in their sluggish performance stopping S. Carolina State 17-0 last week....Line drop from 14 due to Bulls' going without great RB Mike Ford, but with or without Ford, UCF can't match S. Florida's speed.
The pick: South Florida . Don’t expect last year’s 52-point victory, which was at South Florida, but three touchdowns or more wouldn’t be surprising—unless hurricane Hanna prevails.
Connecticut -7 at Temple—UConn looked sloppy in its victory over Hofstra last week, committing five turnovers. Temple looked good beating Army, but then again, who wouldn’t. Last year Temple should have beaten the Huskies on a last-second completion that the refs ruled out of the end zone. Replay showed it was good, however, but strangely wasn’t overturned. The Owls still have a bad taste from that one.
The pick: Temple. UConn might be looking ahead to its game with Virginia next week.
UAB +12½ at Florida Atlantic—If the rains don’t interfere too much, this should be a one-sided affair. Even in defeat at Texas, Florida Atlantic moved the ball, and they should be able to pass at will against UAB which has no pass rush. Last week at home UAB played Tulsa close for a half, then got buried in the second half, 45-22. This game looks even tougher for the Blazers.
The pick: Florida Atlantic. This line dropped from -14 when FAU announced the loss of their second defensive end this year to injury.
Stanford +14 at Arizona State—A reluctant vote for Stanford, which looks much improved under Jim Harbaugh. Stanford’s passing game should be able to exploit ASU’s spotty secondary. The question is, however, can Stanford’s defense hold off Sun Devil QB Rudy Carpenter?
Last week Carpenter looked good beating Northern Arizona, which everyone expected. However, there was no running game for the Sun Devils, whatsoever, and if they expect to cut down on last year’s total of 55 sacks allowed, they better find something more than Carpenter running 22 times for 28 yards (vs. N. Arizona).
The pick: Stanford.
Friday
Navy +7 at Ball State—Last year Ball State won in OT at Navy, with each team getting over 500 yards. This year Ball State's better, Navy's worse and Ball State has the home field plus a hopped up crowd with ESPN in town.
The pick: Ball State (best bet).
Last Week: 11-3; Overall: 11-3;
Double-Digit favorites: 5-0;
Underdogs: 4-1; Dogs that won outright: 4-1.
Second Thoughts
Last week all three of our best bets were big favorites and all three won. At this time of the season, mismatches are the rule and often the linemakers haven’t caught up with the players. In five of the seven double-digit games we analyzed this week, the favorite was our choice. And in three of those cases. On the other hand, the two underdogs we chose in those situations (Miami and Stanford) were reluctant picks. So you can see where our confidence lies.
Texas got a scare when it helped UCF open its new stadium last year, barely winning 35-32. We don’t expect the Longhorns to be caught off guard against this time at UTEP. But 27 is a lot of wood to chop on the road, especially against Mike Price who has sought to get every edge by starting the game at 9:15 El Paso time. Still, Price is going to need a frenzied crowd and effort from his team, which looks like it might have slipped another notch after getting blown out 42-17 at Buffalo last week. Or were the Miners simply looking ahead to this one?
Cal is nearly a two-TD fave at Washington State and even though laying those kind of points on the road is usually a death sentence, the Cougars look very bad this year. Losing 39-13 at home last week to Oklahoma State showed just how slow they are. And presuming they lose this game, if they don’t win at Baylor next week, Portland State might be the only winnable game on their schedule.
You figure Dave Wannstedt feels the heat and will turn it up at Pitt this week against Buffalo. But Turner Gill has Buffalo off to a fast start and those 13 points they’re getting look awfully big against a Panther team that’s liable to play tight.
Not sold on Notre Dame making this big reverse this year, although their schedule looks easier than any other BCS team around. And this week’s opponent, San Diego State, lost to Cal Poly last week.
The line has shot up from 15 to 16½ if you like Oklahoma State over Houston, but not so fast my friend. Houston’s not chopped liver. They’ve got a new spread attack with two strong quarterbacks to run it and a defense that’s pretty decent. Sure the Cowboys are fast, but they may have looked better than they are against Washington State.
Oregon State hasn't had much luck playing out of conference the last few years. They got killed visiting Louisville a few years ago and were left for dead at Cincinnati last year. They've also lost at Fresno and Boise State. Now they go to Penn State off a loss to Stanford, which looks like a receipe for another mauling. But I don't trust penn State that much.
--30--
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
WhataWeekend for Rich: 11-3 !!!
Rich Podolsky completed his incredible opening weekend of the college football season by going 11-3.
Monday's two winners were both dogs, Fresno State and UCLA. Of Rich's 14 picks, five were dogs and four of them (East Carolina +9, Utah +3, Fresno State +4 and UCLA +7 1/2 won outright. He also went 3-0 with his best bets Florida, Texas and Missouri.
Next weekend's picks will be posted Thursday, Sept. 4th. Be ready!
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Monday's two winners were both dogs, Fresno State and UCLA. Of Rich's 14 picks, five were dogs and four of them (East Carolina +9, Utah +3, Fresno State +4 and UCLA +7 1/2 won outright. He also went 3-0 with his best bets Florida, Texas and Missouri.
Next weekend's picks will be posted Thursday, Sept. 4th. Be ready!
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